It’s no secret that this winter in Colorado has been dry. Very dry. Record-setting dry. Water levels in the Colorado River are so low that the flow past Lake Powell – which feeds Nevada, California and Arizona – is being reduced.
With snow runoff from the mountains expected to be much lower than normal, Denver Water is draining Antero Reservoir into Cheesman Reservoir to prevent Antero Reservoir from drying up due to evaporation. Antero loses water each year due to evaporation, but what is lost is usually replenished by snow runoff. With so little snowpack, what evaporates won’t be replenished, so by draining into Cheesman, they prevent the water from being wasted.
The snowpack in the mountains is so far below normal that there have been social media posts from cyclists who in the past couple of weeks were able to cycle up and over Independence Pass, which would be near impossible in a “normal” year. Posted photos show the road mostly dry and very little snow at the top of the 12,000’ pass, where there would normally be many feet of snow. Guanella Pass, the access point to popular 14er Mt. Bierstadt, opened more than two weeks ago, with posts on social media at the time reporting that the road was mostly dry.
It looks like the weather may do a 180° turn later this summer when meteorologists are predicting a “super” El Niño system to develop. While it’s still up in the air as to how strong this system will be and what it means to Colorado, generally speaking, El Niño’s bring wetter weather during monsoon season – late summer – and more snow in the winter months, all of which can be a way out of our current drought.
Much as the weather looks like it will be a mixed bag this year, so are the outdoor recreation opportunities, and your hiking and camping plans may need to be adjusted a bit. Trails that normally would not be accessible until later in the summer might be available much sooner than normal, due to reduced snow amounts. Trails such as to Linkins Lake, Independence Lake or Lost Man Lake (both part of the longer Lost Man Loop) that start near the top of Independence Pass and usually aren’t clear of snow in a typical year until late June, may be accessible as soon as Memorial Day weekend, when Independence Pass opens to cars. Similarly, trails such as the Alpine Tunnel Trail near St. Elmo (which when I last did it wasn’t passable until late July) may also be accessible earlier than usual.
On the other hand, the coming El Niño could bring rainy weather later in the summer that could make these, and other high-country trails, difficult to do. It’s almost like Mother Nature wants to flip scheduling of outdoor recreation on its head this year.
A few caveats, of course. Anyone who has spent any time in Colorado knows that May can be a snowy month. Gardeners know not to plant anything before Mother’s Day – in fact, I have photos of 6” of fresh snow in the Garden of the Gods from some years ago on Mother’s Day. So, while it’s highly unlikely Colorado will see enough snow to get back to normal, it’s still possible – likely even – that we’ll still see some snow in the next month.
Call a day or two ahead to the applicable US Forest Service Ranger District to check on road and trail access. Check the weather forecast – I recommend Peaks2PlainsWeather.com – and plan based on what is coming. And, while snowpack is low, the risk of avalanche still exists, so check on avalanche conditions at https://avalanche.state.co.us/. As we move into the summer, the lack of snowpack can increase the chances of wildfire, so check on – and heed! – fire restrictions. All of the Pike and San Isabel National Forests and Cimarron and Comanche Grasslands have already been under a stage 1 fire restriction for more than a month.
Be Good. Do Good Things. Plan Ahead.
